J. Space Weather Space Clim.
Volume 11, 2021
|Number of page(s)||12|
|Published online||22 January 2021|
Agora – Project report
Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 using polar faculae observations
Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE), Royal Observatory of Belgium, Avenue Circulaire 3, Brussels 1180, Belgium
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Accepted: 24 December 2020
Based on the monthly number of polar faculae, a forecast of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (SC25) is provided, as well as a prediction of the number of solar flares. Faculae near both solar poles have been visually observed using a commercial off-the-shelf 20 cm Schmidt-Cassegrain telescope since 1995. The monthly averages were corrected for varying seeing conditions and the heliographic latitude of the center of the solar disk B0. From the deduced relationship between the smoothed number of monthly polar faculae during the solar cycle minimum, and the subsequent maximum of the monthly sunspot number, a prediction has been made for the amplitude of the next solar cycle. The methodology used can be considered as a precursor technique. The expected number of M- and X-class flares was calculated based on a statistical approach. The maximum of SC25 is predicted to be 118 ± 29, of similar strength than the previous SC24. Also the number of M5 or stronger flares is expected to be comparable to that of the previous solar cycle.
Key words: polar faculae / solar cycle / solar activity / solar flares
© J. Janssens, Published by EDP Sciences 2021
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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