J. Space Weather Space Clim.
Volume 11, 2021
|Number of page(s)||6|
|Published online||19 October 2021|
Geomagnetic activity recurrences for predicting the amplitude and shape of solar cycle n. 25
INAF-Istituto di Astrofisica e Planetologia Spaziali, Via del Fosso del Cavaliere, 100, 00133 Roma, Italy
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Accepted: 7 September 2021
Predicting solar activity is one of the most challenging topics among the various Space Weather and Space Climate issues. In the last decades, the constant enhancement of Space Climate data improved the comprehension of the related physical phenomena and the statistical bases for prediction algorithms. For this purpose, we used geomagnetic indices to provide a powerful algorithm (see Diego et al. [2010. J Geophys Res 115: A06103]) for the solar activity prediction, based on evaluating the recurrence rate in the geomagnetic activity. This paper aims to present the validation of our algorithm over solar cycle n. 24, for which a successful prediction was made, and upgrade it to forecast the shape and time as well as the amplitude of the upcoming cycle n. 25. Contrary to the consensus, we predict it to be quite high, with a maximum sunspot number of 205 ± 29, which should be reached in the first half of 2023. This prediction is consistent with the scenario in which the long-term Gleissberg cycle has reached its minimum in cycle n. 24, and the rising phase is beginning.
Key words: space weather / Sun / solar-terrestrial relations / geomagnetic activity
© P. Diego & M. Laurenza, Published by EDP Sciences 2021
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.
Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.
Initial download of the metrics may take a while.