Research Article

The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model

¹ Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing (IAASARS), National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou St., 15236, Penteli, Greece
² Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, 20014 Turku, Finland
³ Aboa Space Research Oy, Tierankatu 4B, 20520 Turku, Finland
⁴ European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), Space Environment and Effects Section, Keplerlaan 1, 2200AG Noordwijk, The Netherlands
⁵ Dep. Física Quàntica i Astrofísica (FQA), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), c. Martí i Franquès, 1, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
⁶ Institut de Ciències del Cosmos (ICCUB), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), c. Martí i Franquès, 1, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
⁷ Institut d’Estudis Espacials de Catalunya (IEEC), c. Gran Capità, 2-4, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
⁸ Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Avenue Circulaire 3, 1180 Uccle, Belgium

^* Corresponding author: atpapaio@astro.noa.gr

Received: 10 October 2021
Accepted: 24 May 2022

Abstract

The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e., E > 10, > 30, and > 100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed), and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described, and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational advanced solar particle event casting system (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA’s future SEP advanced warning system (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run-on-demand functionality.