Table 1.
SC characteristics (start time ts, peak time tp, ascent time Ta, descent time Td, length Tcy and solar maximum Smax) for SCs 1–23. The model parameters Tpre and the Shannon entropy obtained using the histogram technique along with bin widths derived from Scott’s and Knuth’s methods for ws = 9 are presented for SCs 10–23. Td (computed from Eq. (6)) and the absolute deviation (obtained from observed values of Td) are presented in the last two columns. The predicted values are shown in bold. The epochs and time durations are in units of years.
Cy. no. | SC characteristics |
Kunth’s method |
Scott’s method |
Error in prediction |
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ts | tp | Ta | Td | Tcy | Smax | Tpre | E | Wk | E | Wk | [Td]cal |
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1 | 1755.13 | 1761.46 | 6.33 | 4.92 | 11.25 | 86.50 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
2 | 1766.38 | 1769.71 | 3.33 | 5.75 | 9.08 | 115.80 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
3 | 1775.46 | 1778.38 | 2.92 | 6.33 | 9.25 | 158.50 | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
4 | 1784.71 | 1788.13 | 3.42 | 10.17 | 13.58 | 141.20 | 8.33 | – | – | 5.75 | – | – | – |
5 | 1798.29 | 1805.13 | 6.83 | 5.00 | 11.83 | 49.20 | 12.58 | – | – | 4.88 | – | – | – |
6 | 1810.13 | 1816.38 | 6.25 | 6.83 | 13.08 | 48.70 | 12.58 | – | – | 5.17 | – | – | – |
7 | 1823.21 | 1829.88 | 6.67 | 4.00 | 10.67 | 71.50 | 16.83 | – | – | 4.83 | – | – | – |
8 | 1833.88 | 1837.21 | 3.33 | 6.33 | 9.67 | 146.90 | 8.33 | – | – | 5.78 | – | – | – |
9 | 1843.54 | 1848.13 | 4.58 | 7.83 | 12.42 | 131.90 | 11.42 | – | – | 5.55 | – | – | – |
10 | 1855.96 | 1860.13 | 4.17 | 7.08 | 11.25 | 98.00 | 8.17 | 5.69 | 2.26 | 5.71 | 2.94 | – | – |
11 | 1867.21 | 1870.63 | 3.42 | 8.33 | 11.75 | 140.30 | 9.75 | 5.63 | 1.41 | 5.70 | 3.00 | – | – |
12 | 1878.96 | 1883.96 | 5.00 | 6.17 | 11.17 | 74.60 | 12.83 | 5.14 | 2.19 | 5.17 | 2.03 | 6.32 | 0.15 |
13 | 1890.13 | 1894.04 | 3.92 | 8.00 | 11.92 | 87.90 | 11.00 | 5.29 | 2.15 | 5.30 | 2.24 | 7.86 | 0.14 |
14 | 1902.04 | 1906.13 | 4.08 | 7.33 | 11.42 | 64.20 | 12.42 | 5.08 | 1.13 | 5.13 | 2.14 | 6.58 | 0.75 |
15 | 1913.46 | 1917.63 | 4.17 | 5.92 | 10.08 | 105.40 | 10.33 | 5.46 | 2.96 | 5.47 | 2.68 | 5.79 | 0.12 |
16 | 1923.54 | 1928.29 | 4.75 | 5.42 | 10.17 | 78.10 | 12.75 | 5.31 | 3.35 | 5.32 | 2.32 | 5.86 | 0.45 |
17 | 1933.71 | 1937.29 | 3.58 | 6.83 | 10.42 | 119.20 | 10.92 | 5.47 | 4.02 | 5.46 | 2.54 | 6.55 | 0.28 |
18 | 1944.13 | 1947.38 | 3.25 | 6.92 | 10.17 | 151.80 | 9.17 | 5.63 | 3.03 | 5.64 | 2.85 | 7.76 | 0.84 |
19 | 1954.29 | 1958.21 | 3.92 | 6.58 | 10.50 | 201.30 | 9.33 | 5.72 | 4.01 | 5.71 | 2.99 | 7.09 | 0.51 |
20 | 1964.79 | 1968.88 | 4.08 | 7.33 | 11.42 | 110.60 | 10.92 | 5.42 | 3.97 | 5.41 | 2.29 | 6.77 | 0.56 |
21 | 1976.21 | 1979.96 | 3.75 | 6.75 | 10.50 | 164.50 | 10.67 | 5.59 | 4.10 | 5.59 | 2.74 | 7.56 | 0.81 |
22 | 1986.71 | 1989.54 | 2.83 | 6.83 | 9.67 | 158.50 | 9.42 | 5.62 | 4.39 | 5.62 | 2.83 | 6.66 | 0.17 |
23 | 1996.38 | 2000.29 | 3.92 | 8.58 | 12.50 | 120.80 | 11.25 | 5.27 | 3.74 | 5.26 | 2.09 | 7.85 | 0.73 |
24 | 2008.88 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6.84 | – |
25 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5.77 | – |
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