Prediction and warning system of SEP events and solar flares for risk estimation in space launch operations | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Statistical Challenges in Solar Information Processing

Open Access

Table 2.

Evaluation of the performance of the classical ASAP with 24-hour prediction horizon and the SEPsFLAREs predictions for 6, 12, 24, and 48-hour prediction horizon, when tested on data from January 2014 to December 2015. The selected thresholds (labeled Thres) to obtain the reported performances, which were achieved by means of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC; Swets 1996),¹ are also included.

Pred. system	Pred. horizon		C-flare	M-flare	X-flare
Classical ASAP	24 h	Thres	0.15	0.05	0.05
		POD	0.55	0.55	0.75
		FAR	0.41	0.78	0.96
		QR	0.10	0.03	0.01
		HSS	0.50	0.28	0.07
		TSS	0.49	0.49	0.69
SEPsFLAREs ASAP	6 h	Thres	0.15	0.05	0.05
		POD	0.54	0.65	0.65
		FAR	0.64	0.94	0.99
		QR	0.06	0.01	0.00
		HSS	0.38	0.10	0.02
		TSS	0.47	0.55	0.59
SEPsFLAREs ASAP	12 h	Thres	0.15	0.05	0.05
		POD	0.73	0.73	0.67
		FAR	0.59	0.89	0.98
		QR	0.08	0.02	0.00
		HSS	0.45	0.17	0.04
		TSS	0.60	0.62	0.61
SEPsFLAREs ASAP	24 h	Thres	0.35	0.10	0.05
		POD	0.62	0.74	0.82
		FAR	0.45	0.84	0.98
		QR	0.09	0.03	0.01
		HSS	0.51	0.22	0.04
		TSS	0.53	0.61	0.71
SEPsFLAREs ASAP	48 h	Thres	0.60	0.20	0.05
		POD	0.69	0.71	0.84
		FAR	0.36	0.76	0.96
		QR	0.12	0.04	0.02
		HSS	0.59	0.31	0.06
		TSS	0.60	0.60	0.71

ROC curves plot the POD as a function of FAR for different thresholds, which is useful to select the most appropriate threshold to maximize the performance.

Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.

Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.

Initial download of the metrics may take a while.