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All issues Volume 6 (2016) J. Space Weather Space Clim., 6 (2016) A28 Full HTML

Table 3.

Results of peak and end predictions for the 129 SEP events occurring between 1st January 1994 and 30th June 2014.
Evaluation sample

  • Period: 1st January 1994–30th June 2014

  • Total number of SEP events: 129
Parent solar event identification

  • Number of issued identification inferences to derive SEP predictions1:

    • 86 (i.e. 66.7%: 86/129)

  • Number of identification successes2:

    • 70 (i.e. 54.3%: 70/129)
SEP peak prediction

  • Number of issued Peak predictions:

    • 108 (83.7%: 108/129)

  • Peak time prediction evaluation:

    • Average absolute error: 11.3 h

  • Peak intensity prediction evaluation:

    • Average absolute error: 0.54 of log10 units of pfu
SEP end prediction

  • Statistics on SEP duration process time of issued predictions:

    • Mean = 66.8 h Max = 198.3 h

  • Statistics on SEP duration process time of not issued predictions:

    • Mean = 61.8 h Max = 129.5 h

  • Number of issued End time predictions:

    • 112 (86.8%: 112/129)

  • Duration prediction evaluation:

    • Average absolute error: 28.8 h
1

If the available data do not lead to a valid hypothesis either on SEP peak or SEP end, the corresponding prediction is not issued.

2

In this work, the inferences of the parent solar event are considered a failure when the absolute error (compared with the solar parent event given in the NOAA/SWPC SEP list) is greater than 10°.

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