Open Access
Table 1
Forecast statistics for: “RR” − real-time quicklook Dstp prediction using real-time input; “FF” − final Dstp prediction using final input; “RF” − final Dstp prediction using real-time input.
| Number of storms | Successful forecast | Overestimated | Missed | Overestimated maximal prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RR FF RF | RR FF RF | RR FF RF | RR FF RF | ||
| Sudden storms | |||||
| Sharp increase of VBs | 23 | 21 22 21 | 1 1 1 | 1–1 | 2 3 5 |
| Gradual storms | |||||
| Dstp ≤ − 100 nT | 5 | 3 5 5 | 1 − − | 1 − − | – 1 1 |
| Gradual storms | |||||
| −100 < Dstp < − 50 nT | 92 | 78 88 81 | 2 − 2 | 12 4 9 | 7 10 22 |
| Gradual storms | |||||
| Final Dstp > − 50 nT, Quicklook Dstp < − 50 nT | 33 | 27 33 23 | 1 − 6 | 5 − 4 | 2 10 14 |
| Total | 153 | 129 148 130 | 5 1 9 | 19 4 14 | 11 24 42 |
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