Table 4

Summary of the performances for the CME arrival and Kp index forecasts, including the correct rejection (CR) rate, false alarm (FA) rate, correct alarm (CA) ratio and false alarm (FA) ratio scores defined in Section 4.

Forecast performances

Forecast type CR rate FA rate CA ratio FA ratio
CME arrival 60% 40% 89% 11%
Kp index (random) 75% 25% 80% 20%
Kp index (southward) 29% 71% 68% 32%

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