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Table 10

Summary of forecasting performance of the current UMASEP-10 tool and other UMASEP-10-based tool which used the WCP-euv models for predicting all SWPC SEP events with energies >10 MeV that occurred from May 2010 to December 2017. The first four rows present forecasting performance metrics using a specific EUV-based or SXR-based WCP model jointly with the PCP model. From the fifth row to the seventh row, the forecasting performance metrics using the WCP model alone are presented; and, the last three rows show the performance results of the PCP model which is used in all the presented UMASEP-10-based tools.

UMASEP-10euv94 (93–94.5 Å) UMASEP-10euv171 (170.7–172.7 Å) UMASEP-10euv304 (298–308 Å) UMASEP-10 (v1.3)a (1–8 Å) UMASEP-10sxr94b (1–8 Å) UMASEP-10sxr304c (1–8 Å)
WCP + PCP PODall 92.9% (39/42)d 85.7% (36/42)d 92.9% (39/42)d 81.0% (34/42)d 92.9% (39/42)d 92.9% (39/42)d
FARall 29.1% (16/55) 29.4% (15/51) 31.6% (18/57) 29.2% (14/58) 31.6% (18/57) 33.9% (20/59)
AWT (MWT) 156 (69) min 159 (78) min 153 (68) min 173 (82) min 177 (85) min 174 (83) min
CSIall 67.2 % 63.2% 65.0% 60.7% 65.0% 62.9%
PODprompt 84.4 % (27/32) 75.0% (24/32) 84.4% (27/32) 68.8% (22/32) 87.5 % (28/32) 87.5 % (28/32)
WCP only PODall 64.3% (27/42) 57.1% (24/42) 64.3% (27/42) 52.4% (22/42) 66.7% (28/42) 66.7% (28/42)
FARall 10% (3/30) 11.1% (3/27) 15.6% (5/32) 8.3% (2/24) 15.2% (5/33) 20.0% (7/35)
PODnon-prompt 100% (10/10) 100% (10/10) 100% (10/10) 100% (10/10) 100% (10/10) 100% (10/10)
PCP only PODall 35.7% (15/42)d 35.7% (15/42)d 35.7% (15/42) 35.7% (15/42)d 35.7% (15/42)d 35.7% (15/42)d
FARall 44.4% (12/27) 44.4% (12/27) 44.4% (12/27) 44.4% (12/27) 44.4% (12/27) 44.4% (12/27)
a

The UMASEP-10 tool (v1.3) was calibrated using data up to October 2014, so their results with calibration and out-of-sample data can be compared with those of the EUV-based models shown in this study.

b

The UMASEP-10sxr94 is composed of the WCP-euv94, WCP-sxr and PCP models.

c

The UMASEP-10sxr304 is composed of the WCP-euv304, WCP-sxr and PCP models.

d

The PCP model predicted 10 non-prompt and 2 additional prompt SEPs.

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