Table 10
Summary of forecasting performance of the current UMASEP-10 tool and other UMASEP-10-based tool which used the WCP-euv models for predicting all SWPC SEP events with energies >10 MeV that occurred from May 2010 to December 2017. The first four rows present forecasting performance metrics using a specific EUV-based or SXR-based WCP model jointly with the PCP model. From the fifth row to the seventh row, the forecasting performance metrics using the WCP model alone are presented; and, the last three rows show the performance results of the PCP model which is used in all the presented UMASEP-10-based tools.
| UMASEP-10euv94 (93–94.5 Å) | UMASEP-10euv171 (170.7–172.7 Å) | UMASEP-10euv304 (298–308 Å) | UMASEP-10 (v1.3)a (1–8 Å) | UMASEP-10sxr94b (1–8 Å) | UMASEP-10sxr304c (1–8 Å) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCP + PCP | PODall | 92.9% (39/42)d | 85.7% (36/42)d | 92.9% (39/42)d | 81.0% (34/42)d | 92.9% (39/42)d | 92.9% (39/42)d |
| FARall | 29.1% (16/55) | 29.4% (15/51) | 31.6% (18/57) | 29.2% (14/58) | 31.6% (18/57) | 33.9% (20/59) | |
| AWT (MWT) | 156 (69) min | 159 (78) min | 153 (68) min | 173 (82) min | 177 (85) min | 174 (83) min | |
| CSIall | 67.2 % | 63.2% | 65.0% | 60.7% | 65.0% | 62.9% | |
| PODprompt | 84.4 % (27/32) | 75.0% (24/32) | 84.4% (27/32) | 68.8% (22/32) | 87.5 % (28/32) | 87.5 % (28/32) | |
| WCP only | PODall | 64.3% (27/42) | 57.1% (24/42) | 64.3% (27/42) | 52.4% (22/42) | 66.7% (28/42) | 66.7% (28/42) |
| FARall | 10% (3/30) | 11.1% (3/27) | 15.6% (5/32) | 8.3% (2/24) | 15.2% (5/33) | 20.0% (7/35) | |
| PODnon-prompt | 100% (10/10) | 100% (10/10) | 100% (10/10) | 100% (10/10) | 100% (10/10) | 100% (10/10) | |
| PCP only | PODall | 35.7% (15/42)d | 35.7% (15/42)d | 35.7% (15/42) | 35.7% (15/42)d | 35.7% (15/42)d | 35.7% (15/42)d |
| FARall | 44.4% (12/27) | 44.4% (12/27) | 44.4% (12/27) | 44.4% (12/27) | 44.4% (12/27) | 44.4% (12/27) |
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