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Table 3

This table summarizes the forecasting results of the WCP-euvA, WCP-euvB, WCP-euvE, WCP-euv94, WCP-euv171 and WCP-euv304 models using calibration data for predicting the events in Table 4 that took place from May 2010 to October 2014. This table also presents the forecasting results of the version 1.3 of the SXR-based WCP which was also calibrated with data up to October 2014.

WCP-euvA (50–150 Å)a WCP-euvB (250–340 Å)a WCP-euvE (1180–1270 Å)a WCP-euv94 (93–94.5 Å)a WCP-euv171 (170.7–172.7 Å)a WCP-euv304 (298–308 Å)a WCP-sxr (v1.3) d (1–8 Å)a , c
PODprompt 84.6% (22/26) 84.6% (22/26) 73.1% (19/26) 80.8% (21/26) 73.1% (19/26) 80.8% (21/26) 65.4% (17/26)
FARprompt 12.0% (3/25) 8.3% (2/24) 13.6% (3/22) 4.5% (1/22) 9.5% (2/21)b 4.5% (1/22) 5.6% (1/18)c
AWT (MWT)c 56 (45) min 53 (40) min 61 (45) min 43 (34) min 58 (45) min 54 (34) min 49 (45) min
CSIprompt 75.9 % 78.6% 65.5% 77.8% 67.9%b 77.8% 63.0%
a

Wavelength range of solar EM data used by each WCP model. See Section 2 for more details.

b

The FAR and CSI obtained by the WCP-euv171 were estimated by filtering out the false alarm #3 (see Table 2), which was triggered by an AIA flare at 171 Å that took place east of E20.

c

The Average and Median Warning times correspond to the successful predictions of prompt SEP events.

d

The forecast results for version 1.3 of the WCP-sxr model, which were calibrated using data up to October 2014.

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