Predicting well-connected SEP events from observations of solar EUVs and energetic protons | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

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Table 8

Forecasting results of the WCP-euv94, WCP-euv171, WCP-euv304 and WCP-sxr (v1.3) models using out-of-sample data for predicting the SEP events in Table 1, which occurred from November 2014 to December 2017.

	WCP-euv94 (93–94.5 Å)^a	WCP-euv171 (170.7–172.7 Å)^a	WCP-euv304 (298–308 Å)^a	WCP-sxr (v1.3)^c (1–8 Å)^a
POD_prompt	100% (6/6)	83.3% (5/6)	100.00% (6/6)	83.3% (5/6)
FAR_prompt	25% (2/8)	16.7% (1/6)	40% (4/10)	16.7% (1/6)
AWT (MWT)^b	144 (155) min	130 (70) min	127 (107) min	169 (220) min
CSI_prompt	75%	71.4%	60%	71.4%

Wavelength range of solar EM data used by each WCP model. See Section 2 for details.

The Average and Median Warning times correspond to the successful predictions of prompt SEP events.

The forecast results for the version 1.3 of the WCP-sxr model which were calibrated using data up to October 2014.

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