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Table 9

False alarms issued by the PCP model for predicting the >10 MeV SEP events in the period 2010–2017 (Table 5).

Date and time at which the false alarm was issued (UT) Maximum integral proton flux observeda (pfu)
08/03/2010 – 19:05 5.2 (19:10)
10/22/2011 – 21:40 13.2 (15:35+)b
12/15/2012 – 1:15 7.5 (1:40)
06/21/2013 – 23:05 6 (9:30+)
10/28/2013 – 22:00 4.1 (0:40+)
11/07/2013 – 3:10 6.8 (4:45)
11/19/2013 – 17:40 4 (18:25)
11/01/2014 – 20:25 6.7 (20:20+)
11/02/2014 – 21:50 9.7 (22:25)
03/15/2015 – 9:30 3.5 (9:40)
03/16/2015 – 7:30 6 (10:00)
07/02/2015 – 0:15 6.1 (0:20)
a

Time and maximum f¡ > 10 MeV integral proton flux and time observed during the 24-hour period of after the prediction. The “+” signs means a time of the next day.

b

According to the proton data taken from GOES 13, the >10 MeV integral proton flux was above 10 pfu during an hour (15:00–16:00) on October 22, 2011. Although this PCP forecast was a hit, we counted it as a false alarm in this paper.

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