Table 1
The complete list of FLARECAST properties, separated in property groups and accounting for a total of 209 predictors. The vast majority (197) of them correspond to the AR magnetic field, while the rest include information from the NOAA SWPC Catalogues and from photospheric intensity images.
| Data Source | Property group | No. of predictors | Relevant predictor | Adapted from | Related references |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Solar region summary (SRS) properties | 2 | McIntosh and Hale classes | McCloskey et al. (2016) | McIntosh (1990) |
| 3 | Number, area and longitudinal extend of sunspots | Lee et al. (2012) | |||
| Catalogues | GOES soft X-ray flare eventsa, b | 4 | Flare magnitude, start, peak, and end times | ||
| Surface-normal component (radial and line-of-sight) magnetograms | Effective connected magnetic field strengthc | 1 | B eff | Georgoulis & Rust (2007), Georgoulis (2011, 2013) | |
| Fractal and multifractal parameters | 1 | Fractal dimension | Conlon et al. (2008) | Abramenko et al. (2003) | |
| 1 | Generalized correlation dimension | Abramenko (2005) | |||
| 2 | Holder exponent; Hausdorff dimension | Al-Ghraibah et al. (2015) | |||
| 2 | Structure function’s inertial range index | ||||
| Fourier and Wavelet power spectral indices | 2 | Power-law exponent | Hewett et al. (2008), Guerra et al. (2015) | ||
| Decay index (DI)d | 8 | Mean DI over PIL segments; height of DI; ratio of PIL length to DI height | Liu (2008) | ||
| Zuccarello et al. (2014) | |||||
| Magnetic PIL properties | 5 | Sum of PIL segments, longest PIL segment | Mason & Hoeksema (2010) | ||
| 1 | R value | Schrijver (2007) | |||
| 1 | WLsg | Falconer et al. (2012) | |||
| 3D magnetic null pointsd | 6 | Number of null points in different height ranges | Haynes & Parnell (2007) | Pontin et al. (2013) | |
| (from 2 to 100 Mm above photosphere) | Barnes & Leka (2006) | ||||
| Ising Energyc | 6 | Original and partitioned Ising energy | Ahmed et al. (2010) | Kontogiannis et al. (2018) | |
| Magnetic energy and helicity | 11 | Poynting flux and magnetic helicity flux proxies | Park et al. (2010) | ||
| Park et al. (2012) | |||||
| Full-vector magnetograms | SHARP propertiese | 100 | Horizontal gradient of B components; shear angle; unsigned vertical current; higher-order moments of time series | Bobra et al. (2014) | |
| (validated) | |||||
| Leka & Barnes (2003b, 2007) | |||||
| Magnetic energy and helicity | 22 | Poynting flux and magnetic helicity flux | Kusano et al. (2002) | Berger & Field (1984), Welsch et al. (2009) | |
| Non-neutralized currents | 6 | Total non-neutralized current | Georgoulis et al. (2012) | Kontogiannis et al. (2017) | |
| Flows around PIL | 22 | Speed of diverging/converging/shear flows | Park et al. (2018) | Deng et al. (2006), Wang et al. (2014) | |
| Intensity imagesf | Magnetic field gradient | 3 | Total horizontal magnetic gradient | Korsós et al. (2014) | Kontogiannis et al. (2018) |
The project uses the flare attributes as properties. At least one flare of desired magnitude in the forecast window signifies a positive instance.
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