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Agora – Project report

Fig. 7


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Meeus smoothed maximum PFcJJ (blue diamonds) and WSO smoothed maximum polar field strengths (0.01 Gauss; green triangles) versus the maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number (ISN) for the respective solar cycles. The square of the correlation coefficient (r2) is unity for the PFcJJ (only 2 datapoints), and 0.9969 for WSO (3 datapoints; St.Dev. ~ 3) with a p-value of 0.036, significant at the 5% level. The SC25 predictions based on the currently observed maximum PFcJJ and WSO polar field strength are in red. Both methods give nearly identical amplitudes for the upcoming SC, predicting maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number for SC25 of 117.9 (rounded to 118), which is almost the same as the observed SC24 maximum (118.2). Hence, both prediction methods seem to indicate that SC25’s amplitude will be similar to that of SC24.

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