Figure 2

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SDO/HMI images with an overlaid 10° × 10° grid as available at SolarMonitor: https://www.solarmonitor.org/, showing a zoom of some sunspot groups that appeared early 2022. NOAA/SWPC classified active region (AR) 12939 as a Dho group, AR 12941 as an Eki group, and AR 13004 as Dkc. Note the McIntosh definitions for a symmetric spot (“s” or “h”) allow for an elliptical or slightly irregular penumbra. For the compact sunspot distribution (“c”), at least one mature spot is required between the two main portions. Consequently, more accurate classifications of these 3 groups would have been Cso, Fsi and Dho. The original misclassifications indicate group types with very high probabilities on M- and X-class flares. Consequently, they largely overestimate the actual flare probabilities associated with the more accurate revised classes. Indeed, during the next 24 hours, each of these groups produced only 1 C-class flare.
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