Solar flare rates and probabilities based on the McIntosh classification: Impacts of GOES/XRS rescaling and revisited sunspot classifications | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Open Access

Issue		J. Space Weather Space Clim. Volume 15, 2025


Article Number		14
Number of page(s)		17
DOI		https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2025007
Published online		08 April 2025

Angryk RA, Martens PC, Aydin B, Kempton D, Mahajan SS, et al. 2020. Multivariate time series dataset for space weather data analytics. Sci Data 7: 227. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0548-x. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Aschwanden MJ. 1994. Irradiance observations of the 1–8 Å solar soft X-ray flux from GOES. Sol Phys, 152(1): 53–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01473183. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Barnes G, Leka KD, Schrijver CJ, Colak T, Qahwaji R,et al. 2016. A comparison of flare forecasting methods. I. Results from the “All-Clear” workshop. Astrophys J 829(2): 89. https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/829/2/89. [Google Scholar]
Bloomfield DS, Higgins PA, McAteer RTJ, Gallagher PT. 2012. Toward reliable benchmarking of solar flare forecasting methods. Astrophys J Lett 747(2): L41. https://doi.org/10.1088/2041-8205/747/2/L41. [Google Scholar]
Boischot A. 1958. Étude du rayonnement radioélectrique solaire sur 169 MHz à l’aide d’un grand interféromètre à réseau. Ann Astrophys 21: 273. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1958AnAp...21..273B/abstract. [Google Scholar]
Bornmann PL. 1990. Limits to derived flare properties using estimates for the background fluxes: examples from GOES. Astrophys J 356, 733–742. https://doi.org/10.1086/168880. [Google Scholar]
Bornmann PL, Shaw D. 1994. Flare rates and the Mcintosh active region classifications. Sol Phys 150(1–2): 127–146. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00712882. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Bornmann PL, Kalmbach D, Kulhanek D. 1994. McIntosh active region class similarities and suggestions for mergers. Sol Phys 150(1–2): 147–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00712883. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Bouwer SD. 1983. Intermediate-term epochs in solar soft X- ray emission. J Geophys Res 88(A10): 7823–7830. https://doi.org/10.1029/JA088iA10p07823. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Canfield RC, Hudson HS, McKenzie DE. 1999. Sigmoidal morphology and eruptive solar activity. Geophys Res Lett, 26(6): 627–630. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900105. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Carrasco VMS, Lefèvre L, Vaquero JM, Gallego MC. 2015. Equivalence relations between the Cortie and Zürich sunspot group morphological classifications. Sol Phys 290(5): 1445–1455. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0679-y. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Carrington RC. 1859. Description of a singular appearance seen in the Sun on September 1, 1859. Mon Not R Astron Soc 20(1): 13–15. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/20.1.13. [Google Scholar]
Cerruti AP, Kintner PM, Jr, Gary DE, Mannucci AJ, Meyer RF, et al. 2008. Effect of intense December 2006 solar radio bursts on GPS receivers. Space Weather 6, 10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007SW000375. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Clette F, Svalgaard L, Vaquero JM, Cliver EW. 2014. Revisiting the sunspot number. A 400-year perspective on the solar cycle. Space Sci Rev 186(1–4): 35–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-014-0074-2. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Cliver EW, Schrijver CJ, Shibata K, Usoskin IG. 2022. Extreme solar events. Living Rev Sol Phys 19(1), 2. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41116-022-00033-8. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Colak T, Qahwaji R. 2009. Automated Solar Activity Prediction: A hybrid computer platform using machine learning and solar imaging for automated prediction of solar flares. Space Weather 7: 6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008SW000401. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Cortie AL. 1901. On the types of sun-spot disturbances. Astrophys J 13, 260. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/1901ApJ....13..260C/doi:10.1086/140816. [Google Scholar]
Delaboudinière J-P, Artzner GE, Brunaud J, Gabriel AH, Hochedez JF, et al. . 1995. EIT: extreme-ultraviolet imaging telescope for the SOHO mission. Sol Phys 162(1–2): 291–312. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00733432. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Devos A, Verbeeck C, Robbrecht E. 2014. Verification of space weather forecasting at the Regional Warning Center in Belgium. J Space Weather Space Clim 4: A29. https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2014025. [CrossRef] [EDP Sciences] [Google Scholar]
Gallagher PT, Moon Y-J, Wang H. 2002. Active-region monitoring and flare forecasting I. Data processing and first results. Sol Phys 209(1): 171–183. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020950221179. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Garcia HA. 1994.Temperature and emission measure from goes soft X-ray measurements. Sol Phys 154(2): 275–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00681100. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Giersch O, Kennewell J, Lynch M. 2018. Reanalysis of solar observing optical network sunspot areas. Sol Phys 293(10): 138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-018-1358-6. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Hale GE, Ellerman F, Nicholson SB, Joy AH. 1919. The magnetic polarity of sun-spots. Astrophys J 49: 153. 10.1086/142452. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Hey JS. 1946. Solar radiations in the 4–6 metre radio wave-length band. Nature 157(3976): 47–48. https://doi.org/10.1038/157047b0. [Google Scholar]
Hudson HS, Simões PJA, Fletcher L, Hayes LA, Hannah IG. 2021. Hot X-ray onsets of solar flares. Mon Not R Astron Soc 501(1): 1273–1281. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa3664. [Google Scholar]
Janssens J. 2021. Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 using polar faculae observations. J Space Weather Space Clim 11: 3. https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2020081. [CrossRef] [EDP Sciences] [Google Scholar]
Johnson NL, Kotz S. 1969. Discrete distributions. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, OCLC, p. 50253. [Google Scholar]
Kahler SW, Kreplin RW. 1991. The NRL SOLRAD X-ray detectors: A summary of the observations and a comparison with the SMS/GOES detectors. Sol Phys 133: 371–384. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00149895. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Kauristie K, Andries J, Beck P, Berdermann J, Berghmans D, et al. 2021. Space weather services for civil aviation – challenges and solutions. Remote Sens 13(18): 3685. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13183685. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Kiepenheuer KO. 1953. Solar activity. In: The Sun, Chapter 6, Kuiper GP (Ed.), The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 322–465. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1953sun..book..322K/abstract. [Google Scholar]
Kildahl KJN. 1980. Solar activity predictions. In: Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings, Vol. 3, Donnelly RF (Ed.), U.S. Department of Commerce, Boulder, pp. 166. [Google Scholar]
Kowalski AF. 2024. Stellar flares. Living Rev Sol Phys. 21(1): 1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41116-024-00039-4. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Kubo Y, Den M, Ishii M. 2017. Verification of operational solar flare forecast: case of Regional Warning Center Japan. J Space Weather Space Clim 7: A20. https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2017018. [CrossRef] [EDP Sciences] [Google Scholar]
Künzel, H. 1960. Die Flare-Häufigkeit in Fleckengruppen unterschiedlicher Klasse und magnetischer Struktur. Astron Nachr 285(5): 271. https://doi.org/10.1002/asna.19592850516. [Google Scholar]
Kusano, K, Iju T, Bamba Y, Inoue S. 2020. A physics-based method that can predict imminent large solar flares. Science 369(6503): 587–591. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz2511. [NASA ADS] [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Lee, K, Moon Y-J, Lee J-Y, Lee K-S, Na H. 2012. Solar flare occurrence rate and probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes, Sol Phys 281(2): 639–650. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-012-0091-9. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Lee, S, Lee J, Hong S. 2013. ASSA GUI User Manual v.1.07. Korean Space Weather Center. https://spaceweather.kasa.go.kr/images/assa/ASSA_GUI_MANUAL_112.pdf (last updated 14 September 2015; Version 1.12). [Google Scholar]
Leka, KD, Park S-H, Kusano K, Andries J, Barnes G, et al. 2019a. A comparison of flare forecasting methods. II. Benchmarks, metrics, and performance results for operational solar flare forecasting systems. Astrophys J Suppl Ser 243(2): 36. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Leka, KD, Park S-H, Kusano K, Andries J, Barnes G, et al. 2019b. A comparison of flare forecasting methods. III. Systematic behaviors of operational solar flare forecasting systems. Astrophys J 881(2): 101. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab2e11. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Lemen, JR, Title AM, Akin DJ, Boerner PF, Chou C, et al. 2012. The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Sol Phys 275(1–2): 17–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-011-9776-8. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Marqué, C, Klein K-L, Monstein C, Opgenoorth H, Pulkkinen A, et al. 2018. Solar radio emission as a disturbance of aeronautical radionavigation. J Space Weather Space Clim 8: A42. https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018029. [CrossRef] [EDP Sciences] [Google Scholar]
McCloskey, AE, Gallagher PT, Bloomfield DS. 2016. Flaring rates and the evolution of sunspot group McIntosh classifications. Sol Phys 291(6): 1711–1738. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-016-0933-y. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
McCloskey, AE, Gallagher PT, Bloomfield DS. 2018. Flare forecasting using the evolution of McIntosh sunspot classifications. J Space Weather Space Clim 8: A34. https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018022. [CrossRef] [EDP Sciences] [Google Scholar]
McIntosh, PS. 1990. The classification of sunspot groups. Sol Phys 125(2): 251–267. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00158405. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Meeus, J. 1958. Une formule d’adoucissement pour l’activité solaire. Ciel et Terre 74: 445. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1958C%26T....74..445M. [Google Scholar]
Murray, SA, Bingham S, Sharpe M, Jackson DR. 2017. Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre, Space Weather 15(4): 577–588. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001579. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Park, SH, Leka KD, Kusano K, Andries J, Barnes G, et al. 2020. A comparison of flare forecasting methods. IV. Evaluating consecutive-day forecasting patterns. Astrophys J 890: 124. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab65f0. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Poppe BB. 2000. New scales help public, technicians understand space weather. Eos, Trans Am Geophys Union 81(29): 322–328. https://doi.org/10.1029/00EO00247. [Google Scholar]
Poppe, BB, Jorden KP. 2006. Sentinels of the Sun: forecasting space weather. Johnson Books, Boulder. ISBN: 1-55566-379-6. [Google Scholar]
Qahwaji, R, Colak T. 2007. Automatic short-term solar flare prediction using machine learning and sunspot associations. Sol Phys 241(1): 195–211. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-006-0272-5. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Ryan, DF, RO Milligan, Gallagher PT, Dennis BR, Tolbert AK, et al. 2012. The thermal properties of solar flares over three solar cycles using GOES X-ray observations. Astrophys J Suppl 202(2): 11. https://doi.org/10.1088/0067-0049/202/2/11. [Google Scholar]
Sammis, I, Tang F, Zirin H. 2000. The dependence of large flare occurrence on the magnetic structure of sunspots. Astrophys J 540(1): 583–587. https://doi.org/10.1086/309303. [Google Scholar]
Scherrer, PH, Bogart RS, Bush RI, Hoeksema JT, Kosovichev AG, et al. 1995. The solar oscillations investigation – Michelson doppler imager. Sol Phys 162(1–2): 129–188. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00733429. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Schou, J, Scherrer PH, Bush RI, Wachter R, Couvidat S, et al. 2012. Design and ground calibration of the helioseismic and magnetic imager (HMI) instrument on the solar dynamics observatory (SDO). Sol Phys 275(1–2): 229–259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-011-9842-2. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Stuart, A, Ord JK. 1994. Kendall’s Advanced Theory of Statistics (6th Ed.). Hodder Education Publishers, United Kingdom. ISBN-10: 0340614307 / ISBN-13: 978-0340614303. [Google Scholar]
Toriumi, S, Wang H. 2019. Flare-productive active regions. Living Rev Sol Phys 16(1): 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41116-019-0019-7. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Waldmeier, M. 1938. Chromosphärische Eruptionen. I. Mit 6 Abbildungen. Z Astrophys 16: 276–290. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1938ZA.....16..276W/abstract. [Google Scholar]
Waldmeier, M. 1947. Heliographische Karten der Photosphäre für das Jahr 1946. Publikationen der Eidgenössische Sternwarte Zürich 9: 1. [Google Scholar]
Wheatland, MS, Litvinenko YE. 2002. Understanding solar flare waiting-time distributions. Sol Phys 211: 255–274. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022430308641. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Wheatland, MS. 2005. A statistical solar flare forecast method. Space Weather 3: 7. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004SW000131. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
White, SM, Thomas RJ, Schwartz RA. 2005. Updated expressions for determining temperatures and emission measures from GOES Soft X-ray measurements. Sol Phys 227(2): 231–248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-2445-z. [CrossRef] [Google Scholar]

Current usage metrics show cumulative count of Article Views (full-text article views including HTML views, PDF and ePub downloads, according to the available data) and Abstracts Views on Vision4Press platform.

Data correspond to usage on the plateform after 2015. The current usage metrics is available 48-96 hours after online publication and is updated daily on week days.

Initial download of the metrics may take a while.