Supplementary material

This article contains four files with supplementary data.

The first file “Supplementary Data A_GOES flares_Old and New.xlsx” contains all 77775 flare events with the old and upscaled (new) flare intensities, as well as comments in the header cells providing additional clarifications. The last column “Not included” (also colour-coded in the first column) provides indications on how to get from the original batch of 77775 flares to the 37831 flares that would eventually be linked to the file with the McIntosh classifications. This basically means to ignore (1) flares with no intensity mentioned or “C0” in column “CMX old”, (2) flares with no active region mentioned as the source, or after verification, no active region could be assigned (“Unk” in column “NOAA”), and (3) all A- and B-class flares in column “Class new only”. These 3 subgroups have been labeled with respectively “1”, “2” and “3” in the column “Not included”.

The second file “Supplementary Data B_McIntosh classifications.xlsx” contains the McIntosh classifications for each of the 4720 “observing” days. This list contains 22232 genuine (i.e. non-zero) and 5088 “zero” (i.e. spotless days or the group in the NOAA listing had no corresponding group on the Kanzelhöhe drawing) McIntosh classifications.

The supplementary file “Suppl Mat_Results A_McI counts_upscaled(GOESNew)flarerates” tabulates for each McIntosh class the counts, the total number of flares associated with it (C, M, and X), the flare rate over 24 hours and the error following the methodology outlined in BL12. The next 3 columns represent the flare rate over 24 hours for C+ flares (C1 or higher flare, so summing for C- and M- and X-class flares), for M+ flares (M1 or higher flare, so summing for M- and X-class flares), and for X+ flares (the same as for X flares). The last columns are the error (BL12) and the McIntosh class again, which were added to guide the eye.

The fourth and final supplementary file “Suppl Mat_Results B_Flare probs_confidence intervals” tabulates for each McIntosh class the counts, the accumulated number of C-, M- and X-class flares (≥ C1, ≥ M1, ≥ X1), and then for each of these 3 flare categories the Poisson flare probability and the corresponding confidence intervals (low, high). These probabilities are used by SWx forecast centers such as the SIDC.

© J. Janssens et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2025