Open Access
Table A1.
Full modeling results. H denotes the lead time of the forecast. C refers to the time taken as an approximation of a Carrington rotation. CI refers to the 95% confidence interval extracted from the predicted normal distribution generated by the model.
| H (days) | C (days) | Maximum CI size (km s−1) | Average CI size (km s−1) | PICP (%) | RMSE (km s−1) | MAE (km s−1) | CC | R 2 | DTW (×103) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24.26 | 293 ± 24 | 136 ± 4 | 81 ± 4 | 55.1 ± 3.3 | 40.9 ± 2.7 | 0.79 ± 0.02 | 0.58 ± 0.05 | 2.52 ± 0.19 |
| 25.26 | 329 ± 83 | 145 ± 15 | 83 ± 6 | 54.3 ± 6.8 | 40.6 ± 5.6 | 0.80 ± 0.04 | 0.59 ± 0.10 | 2.53 ± 0.25 | |
| 26.26 | 291 ± 14 | 141 ± 8 | 80 ± 3 | 57.5 ± 5.1 | 43.4 ± 3.7 | 0.78 ± 0.04 | 0.54 ± 0.08 | 2.69 ± 0.25 | |
| 27.26 | 295 ± 24 | 137 ± 5 | 81 ± 4 | 54.7 ± 3.3 | 40.8 ± 2.7 | 0.79 ± 0.02 | 0.59 ± 0.05 | 2.45 ± 0.21 | |
| 28.26 | 294 ± 13 | 136 ± 5 | 80 ± 2 | 55.4 ± 3.2 | 41.3 ± 2.3 | 0.78 ± 0.02 | 0.58 ± 0.05 | 2.37 ± 0.14 | |
| 29.26 | 289 ± 14 | 135 ± 4 | 77 ± 3 | 58.1 ± 2.8 | 43.8 ± 2.3 | 0.76 ± 0.02 | 0.53 ± 0.05 | 2.54 ± 0.09 | |
| 30.26 | 291 ± 18 | 139 ± 5 | 75 ± 1 | 65.0 ± 3.3 | 48.2 ± 1.9 | 0.70 ± 0.03 | 0.42 ± 0.06 | 2.68 ± 0.11 | |
| 3 | 24.26 | 336 ± 101 | 136 ± 17 | 85 ± 3 | 46.7 ± 1.5 | 35.3 ± 1.3 | 0.85 ± 0.02 | 0.70 ± 0.02 | 2.27 ± 0.20 |
| 25.26 | 406 ± 118 | 144 ± 10 | 88 ± 2 | 46.9 ± 2.6 | 34.6 ± 2.2 | 0.84 ± 0.02 | 0.70 ± 0.03 | 2.23 ± 0.29 | |
| 26.26 | 420 ± 134 | 151 ± 21 | 88 ± 3 | 48.2 ± 2.1 | 35.9 ± 1.5 | 0.83 ± 0.02 | 0.68 ± 0.03 | 2.45 ± 0.28 | |
| 27.26 | 372 ± 116 | 138 ± 13 | 88 ± 3 | 43.7 ± 2.8 | 32.6 ± 2.6 | 0.86 ± 0.02 | 0.74 ± 0.03 | 2.20 ± 0.27 | |
| 28.26 | 405 ± 145 | 147 ± 25 | 89 ± 4 | 46.1 ± 2.4 | 34.4 ± 1.8 | 0.85 ± 0.02 | 0.71 ± 0.03 | 2.31 ± 0.33 | |
| 29.26 | 340 ± 105 | 136 ± 11 | 88 ± 1 | 44.7 ± 1.9 | 33.2 ± 1.7 | 0.87 ± 0.01 | 0.72 ± 0.02 | 2.13 ± 0.31 | |
| 30.26 | 365 ± 113 | 142 ± 16 | 89 ± 2 | 45.5 ± 1.3 | 33.7 ± 1.4 | 0.86 ± 0.01 | 0.71 ± 0.02 | 2.19 ± 0.18 | |
| 5 | 24.26 | 491 ± 84 | 124 ± 6 | 94 ± 2 | 32.5 ± 2.8 | 24.1 ± 1.8 | 0.93 ± 0.01 | 0.85 ± 0.03 | 1.96 ± 0.21 |
| 25.26 | 506 ± 115 | 124 ± 9 | 94 ± 3 | 31.9 ± 4.9 | 22.9 ± 3.7 | 0.94 ± 0.02 | 0.86 ± 0.04 | 1.77 ± 0.28 | |
| 26.26 | 493 ± 87 | 127 ± 9 | 94 ± 3 | 33.0 ± 4.0 | 23.6 ± 2.8 | 0.93 ± 0.02 | 0.85 ± 0.04 | 2.04 ± 0.29 | |
| 27.26 | 449 ± 126 | 127 ± 11 | 95 ± 2 | 31.3 ± 4.4 | 22.8 ± 3.7 | 0.94 ± 0.01 | 0.87 ± 0.03 | 1.96 ± 0.21 | |
| 28.26 | 464 ± 111 | 128 ± 11 | 94 ± 3 | 34.2 ± 5.4 | 25.1 ± 3.4 | 0.93 ± 0.02 | 0.83 ± 0.05 | 2.13 ± 0.42 | |
| 29.26 | 496 ± 130 | 123 ± 9 | 94 ± 3 | 31.7 ± 2.1 | 23.0 ± 1.5 | 0.93 ± 0.01 | 0.86 ± 0.02 | 1.90 ± 0.17 | |
| 30.26 | 451 ± 82 | 120 ± 7 | 90 ± 5 | 32.3 ± 3.4 | 24.2 ± 3.0 | 0.93 ± 0.02 | 0.85 ± 0.03 | 1.91 ± 0.20 |
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