J. Space Weather Space Clim.
Volume 8, 2018
Flares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles and their space weather impacts
|Number of page(s)||10|
|Published online||20 February 2018|
A probabilistic approach to the drag-based model
Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche, Università degli studi dell'Aquila,
Via Vetoio snc,
Coppito (AQ), Italy
2 Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, 00133 Rome, Italy
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Accepted: 10 January 2018
The forecast of the time of arrival (ToA) of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e. the error associated to the estimate. We propose a statistical approach for the computation of the ToA using the drag-based model by introducing the probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. We test this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, and obtain extremely promising results: the average value of the absolute differences between measure and forecast is 9.1h, and half of these residuals are within the estimated errors. These results suggest that this approach deserves further investigation. We are working to realize a real-time implementation which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to create a database of events useful for a further validation of the approach.
Key words: Heliosphere / coronal mass ejection (CME) / space weather
© G. Napoletano et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2018
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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