Open Access
Table 1
The E > 50 MeV 10-pfu events, flare associations, and PPS outcomes.
| SEP event | Flare event | PPS forecast (pfu)b | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEP onset | Peak | Fluence | Start | Event | Rise | Flare | 8800 | X-ray | 8800 |
| Date, time (UT) | (pfu) | (p/cm−2)a | Time | Peak | (min.) | Long. | (sfu) | Pred. | Pred. |
| 02/06/1986 09:35 | 15 | 1.01E+07 | 06:18 | X1.7 | 7 | W06 | 8800 | – | 26 |
| 03/11/1989 05:30 | 183 | 3.19E+06 | 18:48p | X4.5 | 24 | E22 | 20 000 | – | 14 |
| 03/13/1989 05:25 | 10 | 4.37E+05 | 02:59 | X1.2 | 21 | W02 | 1400 | – | (8) |
| 03/17/1989 22:20 | 10 | 2.62E+06 | 17:29 | X6.5 | 8 | W60 | 7500 | 54 | 471 |
| 07/25/1989 09:00 | 18 | 5.32E+06 | 08:39 | X2.6 | 4 | W84 | 830 | (2) | (7) |
| 08/12/1989 16:00 | 557 | 4.77E+08 | 13:57 | X2.6 | 27 | W37 | 5900 | 38 | 606 |
| 09/29/1989 12:00 | 5650 | 9.59E+08 | 10:47 | X9.8 | 46 | W23 | 15 000 | 188 | 1110 |
| 10/19/1989 13:05 | 5150 | 2.25E+09 | 12:29 | X13.0 | 26 | E10 | 44 000 | (8) | 110 |
| 10/22/1989 18:00 | 700 | – | 17:08 | X2.9 | 49 | W31 | 39 000 | 70 | 5370 |
| 10/24/1989 18:00 | 500 | – | 17:36 | X5.7 | 55 | W57 | 48 000 | 643 | 24 100 |
| 11/15/1989 07:20 | 13 | 3.93E+06 | 06:38 | X3.2 | 27 | W26 | 3300 | 26 | 175 |
| 11/30/1989 17:25 | 42 | 2.99E+07 | 11:45 | X2.6 | 40 | W52 | 4400 | 127 | 1310 |
| 05/21/1990 22:55 | 62 | 2.33E+07 | 22:12 | X5.5 | 5 | W36 | 6400 | 11 | 114 |
| 05/24/1990 21:10 | 43 | 5.79E+07 | 20:46 | X9.3 | 3 | W78 | 45 000 | 10 | 459 |
| 03/23/1991 08:35 | 2510 | 4.87E+08 | 22:43p | X9.4 | 2 | E28 | 37 000 | – | – |
| 05/13/1991 02:20 | 25 | 5.94E+06 | 01:03 | M8.2 | 41 | W90 | 190 | (5) | 11 |
| 06/04/1991 18:10 | 23 | 6.78E+07 | 03:37 | X12 | 13 | E70 | 33 000 | – | – |
| 06/11/1991 02:40 | 269 | 1.49E+08 | 02:09 | X12 | 20 | W17 | 17 000 | 54 | 358 |
| 06/15/1991 08:45 | 153 | 9.95E+07 | 06:33 | X12 | 118 | W69 | 17 000 | 2990 | 11 400 |
| 06/25/1992 20:25 | 37 | 1.51E+07 | 19:47 | X3.9 | 24 | W67 | 20 000 | 90 | 2950 |
| 10/30/1992 19:10 | 210 | 1.39E+08 | 17:02 | X1.7 | 28 | W61 | 9000 | 46 | 1920 |
| 11/02/1992 03:20 | 312 | 1.68E+08 | 02:31 | X9.0 | 37 | W90 | 17 000 | 115 | 995 |
| 09/03/1994 08:50 | 37 | 1.95E+05 | None | NR | NR | ||||
| 09/04/1994 09:00 | 16 | 3.30E+05 | None | NR | NR | ||||
| 09/05/1994 09:30 | 11 | 1.31E+05 | None | NR | NR | ||||
| 09/06/1994 09:00 | 58 | 7.55E+05 | None | NR | NR | ||||
| 11/06/1997 12:40 | 115 | 7.46E+07 | 11:49 | X9.4 | 6 | W63 | 10 000 | 54 | 424 |
| 04/20/1998 12:50 | 103 | 8.29E+07 | 09:38 | M1.4 | 43 | W90? | NR | NR | |
| 05/02/1998 14:00 | 24 | 8.38E+06 | 13:31 | X1.1 | 11 | W15 | 1700 | – | 16 |
| 05/06/1998 08:25 | 19 | 2.83E+06 | 07:58 | X2.7 | 11 | W65 | 2000 | 21 | 143 |
| 08/24/1998 23:10 | 11 | 1.08E+07 | 21:50 | X1.0 | 22 | E09 | 2100 | – | (5) |
| 09/30/1998 14:30 | 30 | 8.33E+06 | None | NR | NR | ||||
| 11/14/1998 06:55 | 28 | 1.05E+07 | None | NR | NR | ||||
| 07/14/2000 10:40 | 1670 | 1.37E+09 | 10:03 | X5.7 | 21 | W07 | 8900 | (9) | 86 |
| 11/08/2000 23:45 | 1880 | 1.16E+09 | 22:42 | M7.4 | 46 | W71 | 240 | 20 | 25 |
| 11/25/2000 20:00 | 19 | 7.48E+06 | 00:58 | M8.2 | 32 | E50 | 2800 | – | – |
| 04/03/2001 00:00 | 54 | 2.40E+07 | 21:32p | X20 | 19 | W75 | 7600 | 386 | 591 |
| 04/15/2001 14:00 | 275 | 7.75E+07 | 13:19 | X14.4 | 31 | W85 | 1500 | 240 | 99 |
| 04/18/2001 02:45 | 40 | 1.86E+07 | None | WL | NR | NR | |||
| 08/16/2001 01:05 | 144 | 3.94E+07 | None | bWL | NR | NR | |||
| 09/24/2001 12:00 | 273 | 3.21E+08 | 09:32 | X2.6 | 66 | E23 | 23 000 | – | 35 |
| 10/01/2001 14:20 | 25 | 1.10E+07 | 04:41 | M9.1 | 34 | No L | 130 | NR | NR |
| 11/04/2001 16:50 | 2120 | 9.87E+08 | 16:03 | X1.0 | 17 | W18 | 2400 | (2) | 53 |
| 11/22/2001 21:50 | 162 | 1.46E+08 | 22:32 | M9.9 | 58 | W36 | 790 | 28 | 166 |
| 12/26/2001 05:55 | 180 | 3.33E+07 | 04:32 | M7.1 | 68 | W54 | 3800 | 49 | 2060 |
| 04/21/2002 01:50 | 208 | 1.98E+08 | 00:43 | X1.5 | 68 | W84 | 2800 | 37 | 426 |
| 08/24/2002 01:30 | 76 | 1.87E+07 | 00:49 | X3.1 | 23 | W81 | 13 000 | 29 | 841 |
| 10/26/2003 18:10 | 10 | 3.03E+06 | 17:21 | X1.2 | 58 | W38 | 4500 | 40 | 1060 |
| 10/28/2003 11:40 | 1630 | 1.06E+09 | 09:51 | X17.2 | 79 | E08 | 70 000 | 57 | 658 |
| 11/02/2003 17:40 | 153 | 4.84E+07 | 17:03 | X8.3 | 22 | W56 | 17 000 | 308 | 3780 |
| 11/10/2004 03:10 | 13 | 4.83E+06 | 01:59 | X2.5 | 14 | W49 | 5000 | 27 | 459 |
| 01/16/2005 02:35 | 11 | – | 22:25p | X2.6 | 37 | W05 | 21 000 | (6) | 305 |
| 01/17/2005 10:00 | 350 | 1.64E+08 | 06:59 | X3.8 | 173 | W25 | 16 000 | 357 | 5520 |
| 01/20/2005 06:50 | 1070 | 1.52E+08 | 06:36 | X7.1 | 25 | W61 | 62 000 | 266 | 12 100 |
| 09/08/2005 01:20 | 50 | 8.14E+07 | 17:17p | X17.0 | 23 | E77 | 23 000 | – | – |
| 12/06/2006 18:50 | 103 | 9.71E+07 | 18:29 | X6.5 | 18 | E64 | 13 000 | – | – |
| 12/13/2006 02:55 | 167 | 6.19E+07 | 02:14 | X3.4 | 26 | W23 | 7100 | 22 | 300 |
| 12/14/2006 22:50 | 11 | 2.37E+06 | 21:07 | X1.5 | 52 | W46 | 1900 | 98 | 1000 |
| 06/07/2011 07:10 | 14 | 7.92E+06 | 06:16 | M2.5 | 25 | W64 | 870 | 170 | |
| 01/23/2012 04:45 | 76 | 6.61E+07 | 03:38 | M8.7 | 21 | W21 | 6900 | (3) | 201 |
| 01/27/2012 18:50 | 47 | 3.95E+07 | 17:37 | X1.7 | 60 | W71 | 810 | 83 | 241 |
| 03/07/2012 03:40 | 300 | 3.61+08 | 00:02 | X5.4 | 22 | E27 | 20 000 | – | (6) |
| 03/13/2012 17:55 | 24 | 4.44E+06 | 17:12 | M7.9 | 29 | W59 | 4100 | 19 | 965 |
| 05/17/2012 02:00 | 78 | 1.40E+07 | 01:25 | M5.1 | 22 | W76 | 630 | (3) | 52 |
| 05/22/2013 14:20 | 26 | 1.93E+07 | 13:08 | M5.0 | 24 | W70 | 83 | (5) | – |
| 01/06/2014 08:25 | 12 | 4.62E+06 | None | bWL | NR | NR | |||
| 01/07/2014 19:50 | 48 | 3.59E+07 | 18:04 | X1.2 | 28 | W11 | 1800 | (2) | 33 |
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