Forecasting E > 50-MeV proton events with the proton prediction system (PPS) | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Developing New Space Weather Tools: Transitioning fundamental science to operational prediction systems

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Table 2

PPS contingency table numbers and skill scores for various solar inputs.

Solar variable	Forecast	Observed^a	Not observed	HSS^b	TSS	POD	FAR
>M5 X-ray flares	Yes	33 (+7)	64 (−7)	0.33	0.40	0.49	0.66
	No	34	603	(0.40)	(0.45)	(0.54)	(0.59)
8800-MHz bursts	Yes	44 (+27)	197 (−27)	0.16	0.34	0.66	0.82
With >M5 flares	No	23	417	(0.28)	(0.47)	(0.76)	(0.71)
All 8800-MHz bursts	Yes	44 (+22)	208(−22)	0.13	0.29	0.66	0.83
>500 sfu	No	23	356	(0.23)	(0.40)	(0.74)	(0.74)
All 8800-MHz bursts	Yes	27 (+7)	26 (−7)	−0.14	−0.15	0.40	0.49
>5000 sfu	No	40	21	(−0.01)	(−0.02)	(0.46)	(0.36)
KCL PPS >10-MeV	Yes	18	18	0.09	0.08	0.40	0.50
With >M5 flares	No	27	39	–	–	–	–

Numbers in parentheses are additional PPS forecasts of >10 pfu observed as 1–10 pfu events but counted as Not Observed.

Skill scores in parentheses calculated by moving the observed 1–10 pfu from “Not Observed” to “Observed”.

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