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All issues Volume 8 (2018) J. Space Weather Space Clim., 8 (2018) A39 Full HTML

Table 3.

MAE and MRE of background solar wind predictions, and forecast accuracy of magnetic field polarity.

Function Function1
 Function2
 Function3
Parameter Velocity (km s−1)
Year MAE MRE MAE MRE MAE MRE
2007 88.17 −0.05 89.65 −0.07 89.91 −0.07
2008 97.08 −0.04 98.80 −0.06 98.67 −0.06
2009 62.66 0.10 60.74 0.08 60.17 0.09
2010 71.21 0.00 71.23 −0.02 70.99 −0.02
2011 81.58 −0.06 83.52 −0.07 82.49 −0.07
2012 69.14 −0.04 70.61 −0.06 70.03 −0.06
2013 66.31 0.02 66.28 0.01 65.86 0.00
2014 62.11 0.02 62.83 0.01 61.46 0.00
2015 67.43 0.00 68.84 0.00 67.19 −0.01
2016 80.30 −0.02 81.98 −0.03 82.11 −0.04
All years 74.92 −0.01 75.75 −0.02 75.21 −0.02
Parameter Density (p·cc−1)
Year MAE MRE MAE MRE MAE MRE
2007 3.24 1.59 3.19 1.55 3.16 1.56
2008 3.42 2.71 3.35 2.60 3.29 2.63
2009 3.29 3.77 3.20 3.67 3.19 3.68
2010 3.33 5.50 3.21 5.32 3.21 5.40
2011 3.52 7.05 3.45 6.88 3.43 6.86
2012 3.78 7.18 3.71 7.02 3.67 7.14
2013 3.27 2.51 3.22 2.47 3.18 2.46
2014 3.20 1.74 3.15 1.68 3.08 1.68
2015 3.41 0.85 3.44 0.83 3.36 0.84
2016 3.54 0.82 3.55 0.78 3.43 0.76
All years 3.39 3.31 3.34 3.22 3.30 3.24
Parameter Magnetic field (nT)
Year MAE MRE MAE MRE MAE MRE
2007 4.30 0.19 4.42 0.19 4.29 0.18
2008 3.71 −0.04 3.56 −0.11 3.66 −0.07
2009 2.95 −0.53 2.95 −0.52 2.99 −0.49
2010 4.81 0.39 4.71 0.38 4.70 0.36
2011 6.49 0.87 6.51 0.92 6.41 0.90
2012 7.21 0.86 7.36 0.94 7.19 0.89
2013 9.87 2.05 9.71 2.03 9.86 2.08
2014 12.32 2.64 12.10 2.66 12.21 2.71
2015 11.11 1.64 11.07 1.66 10.97 1.61
2016 7.79 0.77 8.24 0.88 8.40 0.93
All years 6.97 0.86 6.97 0.88 6.98 0.88
Parameter Accuracy of magnetic field polarity
Year MAE MAE MAE
2007 0.69 0.686 0.686
2008 0.71 0.709 0.709
2009 0.60 0.598 0.598
2010 0.67 0.672 0.672
2011 0.62 0.620 0.620
2012 0.62 0.621 0.621
2013 0.65 0.654 0.654
2014 0.61 0.608 0.608
2015 0.69 0.685 0.685
2016 0.63 0.631 0.631
All years 0.65 0.649 0.649

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