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All issues Volume 8 (2018) J. Space Weather Space Clim., 8 (2018) A39 Full HTML

Table 4.

Verification of predicting the HSEs.

Function Function 1 Function 2 Function 3
Parameter HSEs
Year Hit Miss False Hit Miss False Hit Miss False
2007 29 24 9 28 25 8 25 28 8
2008 31 17 18 30 18 15 27 21 9
2009 21 37 9 18 40 6 16 42 5
2010 20 35 5 19 36 5 19 36 1
2011 28 29 11 19 38 5 19 38 4
2012 28 33 7 30 31 6 24 37 5
2013 37 14 11 41 10 19 34 17 14
2014 40 17 23 41 16 19 37 20 21
2015 51 5 19 51 5 16 45 11 13
2016 42 5 24 36 11 29 36 11 19
All years 327 216 137 314 229 128 281 262 100
Parameter Time of Vmax (day) ΔVmax (km s−1) Time of Vmax (day) ΔVmax (km s−1) Time of Vmax (day) ΔVmax (km s−1)
Year ME
2007 −0.01 −130.6 0.01 −151.5 0.19 −153.8
2008 0.45 −141.6 −0.32 −137.6 −0.02 −144.7
2009 0.29 5.2 0.31 15.4 0.35 4.9
2010 −0.26 −31.3 −0.13 −46.0 −0.05 −48.9
2011 0.30 −105.2 0.01 −90.8 0.15 −112.6
2012 0.27 −63.7 −0.14 −66.1 0.34 −81.5
2013 −0.12 −50.7 0.30 −46.6 −0.04 −75.3
2014 0.04 −34.1 0.18 −37.7 0.34 −41.8
2015 0.33 −68.7 0.24 −65.4 0.06 −66.2
2016 0.03 −90.9 0.20 −81.6 0.50 −96.4
All years 0.15 −73.9 0.10 −72.3 0.18 −82.9
Year MAE
2007 1.23 157.8 1.01 173.3 1.09 175.7
2008 1.01 154.1 0.95 145.6 1.03 150.5
2009 1.23 59.1 1.38 66.3 1.36 57.4
2010 1.33 83.2 1.16 90.9 1.30 93.1
2011 1.38 118.9 1.30 115.7 1.52 130.0
2012 1.23 73.4 1.28 77.9 1.29 87.5
2013 1.19 81.1 1.16 80.8 1.11 92.8
2014 1.50 75.0 1.24 82.5 1.62 70.6
2015 1.19 97.2 1.22 100.9 1.24 91.0
2016 1.39 103.7 1.19 95.9 1.38 108.1
All years 1.27 101.2 1.19 102.7 1.29 105.1

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