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Table 1.
Forecasting results of the WCP-electrons and WCP-protons model for predicting all prompt SEP events with energies >10 MeV which occurred from November 2001 to October 2017.
| Start time (ST) of SEP event | Associated flare peak Time (FT) | Event promptness ST–FT | Event hardnessa | WCP-electrons |
WCP-protons |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast result | Warning time | Forecast result | Warning time | ||||
| 11/04/2001 17:05 | 11/04/2001 16:20 | 45 min | Hard | Hit | 15 min | Hit | 10 min |
| 11/22/2001 23:20 | 11/22/2001 23:15 | 5 min | Hard | Hit | 2 h | Hit | 1 h 50 min |
| 12/26/2001 6:05 | 12/26/2001 5:40 | 25 min | Hard | Hit | 5 min | Miss | |
| 02/20/2002 7:30 | 02/20/2002 6:12 | 1 h 18 min | Soft | Miss | Miss | ||
| 04/17/2002 15:30 | 04/17/2002 8:24 | 7 h 6 min | Soft | Hit | 6 h 5 min | Hit | 1 h 55 min |
| 04/21/2002 2:25 | 04/21/2002 1:51 | 34 min | Hard | Hit | 40 min | Hit | 40 min |
| 07/07/2002 18:30 | 07/07/2002 11:43 | 6 h 47 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 4 h 55 min | |
| 08/14/2002 9:00 | 08/14/2002 2:12 | 6 h 48 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 30 min | |
| 08/22/2002 4:40 | 08/22/2002 1:57 | 2 h 43 min | Hard | Miss | Hit | 1 h 5 min | |
| 08/24/2002 1:40 | 08/24/2002 1:12 | 28 min | Hard | Hit | 5 min | Hit | 10 min |
| 11/09/2002 19:20 | 11/09/2002 13:23 | 5 h 57 min | Soft | Hit | 5 h | Hit | 2 h 10 min |
| 05/31/2003 4:40 | 05/31/2003 2:24 | 2 h 16 min | Soft | Hit | 1 h 45 min | Hit | 1 h 35 min |
| 10/26/2003 18:25 | 10/26/2003 18:19 | 6 min | Soft | Hit | 25 min | Hit | 20 min |
| 10/28/2003 12:15 | 10/28/2003 11:10 | 1 h 5 min | Hard | Miss | Hit | 45 min | |
| 11/04/2003 22:25 | 11/04/2003 19:29 | 2 h 56 min | Soft | Miss | Miss | ||
| 12/02/2003 15:05 | 12/02/2003 9:48 | 5 h 17 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 35 min | |
| 04/11/2004 11:35 | 04/11/2004 4:19 | 7 h 16 min | Soft | Miss | Miss | ||
| 07/25/2004 18:55 | 07/25/2004 15:14 | 3 h 41 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 1 h 30 min | |
| 09/19/2004 19:25 | 09/19/2004 17:12 | 2 h 13 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 50 min | |
| 11/07/2004 19:10 | 11/07/2004 16:06 | 3 h 4 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 10 min | |
| 01/16/2005 2:10 | 01/15/2005 23:02 | 3 h 8 min | Soft | Hit | 2 h 10 min | Miss | |
| 06/16/2005 22:00 | 06/16/2005 20:22 | 1 h 38 min | Hard | Hit | 1 h 10 min | Hit | 45 min |
| 08/22/2005 20:40 | 08/22/2005 17:27 | 3 h 13 min | Soft | Hit | 2 h 45 min | Hit | 5 min |
| 12/13/2006 3:10 | 12/13/2006 2:40 | 30 min | Hard | Hit | 10 min | Hit | 5 min |
| 08/14/2010 12:30 | 08/14/2010 10:05 | 2 h 25 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 50 min | |
| 03/08/2011 1:05 | 03/07/2011 20:12 | 4 h 53 min | Soft | Hit | 3 h 20 min | Hit | 1 h 30 min |
| 06/07/2011 8:20 | 06/07/2011 6:41 | 1 h 39 min | Hard | Miss | Hit | 60 min | |
| 08/04/2011 6:35 | 08/04/2011 3:57 | 2 h 38 min | Hard | Hit | 1 h 35 min | Hit | 1 h 55 min |
| 08/09/2011 8:45 | 08/09/2011 8:05 | 40 min | Hard | Hit | 25 min | Hit | 20 min |
| 11/26/2011 11:25 | 11/26/2011 7:10 | 4 h 15 min | Soft | Miss | Miss | ||
| 01/23/2012 5:30 | 01/23/2012 3:59 | 1 h 31 min | Hard | Hit | 1 h 20 min | Hit | 45 min |
| 01/27/2012 19:05 | 01/27/2012 18:37 | 28 min | Hard | Miss | Hit | 15 min | |
| 03/07/2012 5:10 | 03/07/2012 0:24 | 4 h 46 min | Hard | Hit | 1 h 25 min | Hit | 1 h 10 min |
| 03/13/2012 18:10 | 03/13/2012 17:41 | 29 min | Hard | Miss | Hit | 10 min | |
| 05/17/2012 2:10 | 05/17/2012 1:47 | 23 min | Hard | Miss | Hit | 5 min | |
| 07/07/2012 4:00 | 07/06/2012 23:08 | 4 h 52 min | Soft | Hit | 3 h 40 min | Miss | |
| 07/12/2012 18:35 | 07/12/2012 17:10 | 1 h 25 min | Soft | Hit | 1 h 25 min | Hit | 30 min |
| 07/17/2012 17:15 | 07/17/2012 17:15 | 0 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 50 min | |
| 09/28/2012 3:00 | 09/27/2012 23:57 | 3 h 3 min | Soft | Miss | Miss | ||
| 04/11/2013 10:55 | 04/11/2013 7:16 | 3 h 39 min | Hard | Hit | 2 h 40 min | Hit | 1 h 25 min |
| 05/22/2013 14:20 | 05/22/2013 13:32 | 48 min | Hard | Hit | 15 min | Hit | 15 min |
| 09/30/2013 5:05 | 09/29/2013 23:37 | 5 h 28 min | Soft | Miss | Miss | ||
| 12/28/2013 21:50 | 12/28/2013 18:02 | 3 h 48 min | Soft | Miss | Miss | ||
| 01/07/2014 19:30 | 01/07/2014 18:32 | 58 min | Soft | Miss | Miss | ||
| 02/20/2014 8:50 | 02/20/2014 7:56 | 54 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 30 min | |
| 04/18/2014 15:25 | 04/18/2014 13:03 | 2 h 22 min | Soft | Hit | 2 h 5 min | Hit | 1 h 30 min |
| 01/02/2016 4:30 | 01/02/2016 0:11 | 4 h 19 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 3 h 50 min | |
| 07/14/2017 9:00 | 07/14/2017 2:09 | 6 h 51 min | Soft | Miss | Hit | 3 h 40 min | |
| 09/05/2017 0:40 | 09/04/2017 20:33 | 4 h 7 min | Soft | Hit | 2 h 30 min | Hit | 40 min |
| 09/10/2017 16:45 | 09/10/2017 16:06 | 39 min | Hard | Hit | 25 min | Hit | 15 min |
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