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Table 1.

Forecasting results of the WCP-electrons and WCP-protons model for predicting all prompt SEP events with energies >10 MeV which occurred from November 2001 to October 2017.

Start time (ST) of SEP event Associated flare peak Time (FT) Event promptness STFT Event hardnessa WCP-electrons
WCP-protons
Forecast result Warning time Forecast result Warning time
11/04/2001 17:05 11/04/2001 16:20 45 min Hard Hit 15 min Hit 10 min
11/22/2001 23:20 11/22/2001 23:15 5 min Hard Hit 2 h Hit 1 h 50 min
12/26/2001 6:05 12/26/2001 5:40 25 min Hard Hit 5 min Miss
02/20/2002 7:30 02/20/2002 6:12 1 h 18 min Soft Miss Miss
04/17/2002 15:30 04/17/2002 8:24 7 h 6 min Soft Hit 6 h 5 min Hit 1 h 55 min
04/21/2002 2:25 04/21/2002 1:51 34 min Hard Hit 40 min Hit 40 min
07/07/2002 18:30 07/07/2002 11:43 6 h 47 min Soft Miss Hit 4 h 55 min
08/14/2002 9:00 08/14/2002 2:12 6 h 48 min Soft Miss Hit 30 min
08/22/2002 4:40 08/22/2002 1:57 2 h 43 min Hard Miss Hit 1 h 5 min
08/24/2002 1:40 08/24/2002 1:12 28 min Hard Hit 5 min Hit 10 min
11/09/2002 19:20 11/09/2002 13:23 5 h 57 min Soft Hit 5 h Hit 2 h 10 min
05/31/2003 4:40 05/31/2003 2:24 2 h 16 min Soft Hit 1 h 45 min Hit 1 h 35 min
10/26/2003 18:25 10/26/2003 18:19 6 min Soft Hit 25 min Hit 20 min
10/28/2003 12:15 10/28/2003 11:10 1 h 5 min Hard Miss Hit 45 min
11/04/2003 22:25 11/04/2003 19:29 2 h 56 min Soft Miss Miss
12/02/2003 15:05 12/02/2003 9:48 5 h 17 min Soft Miss Hit 35 min
04/11/2004 11:35 04/11/2004 4:19 7 h 16 min Soft Miss Miss
07/25/2004 18:55 07/25/2004 15:14 3 h 41 min Soft Miss Hit 1 h 30 min
09/19/2004 19:25 09/19/2004 17:12 2 h 13 min Soft Miss Hit 50 min
11/07/2004 19:10 11/07/2004 16:06 3 h 4 min Soft Miss Hit 10 min
01/16/2005 2:10 01/15/2005 23:02 3 h 8 min Soft Hit 2 h 10 min Miss
06/16/2005 22:00 06/16/2005 20:22 1 h 38 min Hard Hit 1 h 10 min Hit 45 min
08/22/2005 20:40 08/22/2005 17:27 3 h 13 min Soft Hit 2 h 45 min Hit 5 min
12/13/2006 3:10 12/13/2006 2:40 30 min Hard Hit 10 min Hit 5 min
08/14/2010 12:30 08/14/2010 10:05 2 h 25 min Soft Miss Hit 50 min
03/08/2011 1:05 03/07/2011 20:12 4 h 53 min Soft Hit 3 h 20 min Hit 1 h 30 min
06/07/2011 8:20 06/07/2011 6:41 1 h 39 min Hard Miss Hit 60 min
08/04/2011 6:35 08/04/2011 3:57 2 h 38 min Hard Hit 1 h 35 min Hit 1 h 55 min
08/09/2011 8:45 08/09/2011 8:05 40 min Hard Hit 25 min Hit 20 min
11/26/2011 11:25 11/26/2011 7:10 4 h 15 min Soft Miss Miss
01/23/2012 5:30 01/23/2012 3:59 1 h 31 min Hard Hit 1 h 20 min Hit 45 min
01/27/2012 19:05 01/27/2012 18:37 28 min Hard Miss Hit 15 min
03/07/2012 5:10 03/07/2012 0:24 4 h 46 min Hard Hit 1 h 25 min Hit 1 h 10 min
03/13/2012 18:10 03/13/2012 17:41 29 min Hard Miss Hit 10 min
05/17/2012 2:10 05/17/2012 1:47 23 min Hard Miss Hit 5 min
07/07/2012 4:00 07/06/2012 23:08 4 h 52 min Soft Hit 3 h 40 min Miss
07/12/2012 18:35 07/12/2012 17:10 1 h 25 min Soft Hit 1 h 25 min Hit 30 min
07/17/2012 17:15 07/17/2012 17:15 0 min Soft Miss Hit 50 min
09/28/2012 3:00 09/27/2012 23:57 3 h 3 min Soft Miss Miss
04/11/2013 10:55 04/11/2013 7:16 3 h 39 min Hard Hit 2 h 40 min Hit 1 h 25 min
05/22/2013 14:20 05/22/2013 13:32 48 min Hard Hit 15 min Hit 15 min
09/30/2013 5:05 09/29/2013 23:37 5 h 28 min Soft Miss Miss
12/28/2013 21:50 12/28/2013 18:02 3 h 48 min Soft Miss Miss
01/07/2014 19:30 01/07/2014 18:32 58 min Soft Miss Miss
02/20/2014 8:50 02/20/2014 7:56 54 min Soft Miss Hit 30 min
04/18/2014 15:25 04/18/2014 13:03 2 h 22 min Soft Hit 2 h 5 min Hit 1 h 30 min
01/02/2016 4:30 01/02/2016 0:11 4 h 19 min Soft Miss Hit 3 h 50 min
07/14/2017 9:00 07/14/2017 2:09 6 h 51 min Soft Miss Hit 3 h 40 min
09/05/2017 0:40 09/04/2017 20:33 4 h 7 min Soft Hit 2 h 30 min Hit 40 min
09/10/2017 16:45 09/10/2017 16:06 39 min Hard Hit 25 min Hit 15 min
a

Hard spectrum events are those listed events which also surpass the SWPC threshold J (E > 100 MeV) > 1 pfu.

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