Summary of forecasting performance of the UMASEP-10 tool and the same tool using the combined model (which uses WCP-electrons) for predicting all SWPC SEP events with energies >10 MeV that occurred from November 2001 to October 2017.
|UMASEP-10b||UMASEP-10 + WCP-electronsc|
|PODa||82.42% (75/91)||83.5% (76/91)|
|FAR||23.47% (23/98)||29.0% (31/107)|
|AWT||4 h 20 min||4 h 51 min|
POD calculated taking into account all SWPC >10 MeV SEP (i.e. all well- and poorly-connected events).
UMASEP-10 comprises WCP-protons + PCP models. PCP stands for Poorly-Connected Prediction model (Núñez, 2011).
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