Predicting well-connected SEP events from observations of solar soft X-rays and near-relativistic electrons | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

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Table 4.

Summary of forecasting performance of the UMASEP-10 tool and the same tool using the combined model (which uses WCP-electrons) for predicting all SWPC SEP events with energies >10 MeV that occurred from November 2001 to October 2017.

	UMASEP-10^b	UMASEP-10 + WCP-electrons^c
POD^a	82.42% (75/91)	83.5% (76/91)
FAR	23.47% (23/98)	29.0% (31/107)
AWT	4 h 20 min	4 h 51 min

POD calculated taking into account all SWPC >10 MeV SEP (i.e. all well- and poorly-connected events).

UMASEP-10 comprises WCP-protons + PCP models. PCP stands for Poorly-Connected Prediction model (Núñez, 2011).

“UMASEP-10 + WCP-electrons” may also be seen as the resulting tool obtained by replacing the current WCP-protons in UMASEP-10 with the combined model, which comprises the WCP-protons and WCP-electrons models.

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