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Table 4.

Summary of forecasting performance of the UMASEP-10 tool and the same tool using the combined model (which uses WCP-electrons) for predicting all SWPC SEP events with energies >10 MeV that occurred from November 2001 to October 2017.

UMASEP-10b UMASEP-10 + WCP-electronsc
PODa 82.42% (75/91) 83.5% (76/91)
FAR 23.47% (23/98) 29.0% (31/107)
AWT 4 h 20 min 4 h 51 min

POD calculated taking into account all SWPC >10 MeV SEP (i.e. all well- and poorly-connected events).


UMASEP-10 comprises WCP-protons + PCP models. PCP stands for Poorly-Connected Prediction model (Núñez, 2011).


“UMASEP-10 + WCP-electrons” may also be seen as the resulting tool obtained by replacing the current WCP-protons in UMASEP-10 with the combined model, which comprises the WCP-protons and WCP-electrons models.

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