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Table 2.
CME parameters and arrival time prediction.
CME date from CCMC CME board | 3D parameters |
Heliospheric model |
By Met office |
Heliospheric model |
By SWRC |
Heliospheric model |
CCMC mean prediction error of arrival time (h) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manned-detection + cone-fit (SEPC) |
From Met office |
From SWRC |
Prediction error of arrival time (h) |
|||||||||||||
Direction (°) | Angular width (°) | Velocity (km s−1) | Direction (°) | Angular width (°) | Velocity (km s−1) | Direction (°) | Angular width (°) | Velocity (km s−1) | SEPCa | SEPCb | Met officec | SWRCd | ||||
2014-01-07T18:24 | S25W25 | 87 | 1930 | S30W40 | 136 | 2400 | −20.5 | −16.5 | −18.9 | −24.5 | −13.0 | |||||
2014-02-04T01:25 | S07W13 | 53 | 1070 | S34W29 | 124 | 660 | −25.3 | −30.3 | −15.6 | 4.7 | −10.2 | |||||
2014-02-18T01:25 | N09W07 | 86 | 710 | S29E19 | 106 | 600 | 28.2 | 31.2 | 22.3 | 45.2 | 18.6 | |||||
2014-02-19T16:00 | S30E10 | 87 | 570 | S37E01 | 90 | 800 | −12.0 | −27.0 | −18.6 | −9.0 | −11.8 | |||||
S07E10 | 76 | 1090 | ||||||||||||||
2014-02-25T01:25 | S02E33 | 99 | 1710 | 1.8 | −26.2 | −20.1 | ||||||||||
2014-03-23T04:09 | N04E04 | 41 | 1770 | N04E35 | 104 | 700 | −22.4 | −30.4 | –0.9 | 22.6 | 2.8 | |||||
2014-04-18T13:09 | S02W19 | 133 | 1210 | S34W10 | 90 | 1400 | 5.6 | 1.6 | −1.2 | −0.4 | 5.5 | |||||
2014-08-22T06:28 | S07E04 | 64 | 790 | N10W29 | 100 | 444 | −36.0 | −34.0 | −25.0 | 4.0 | −20.2 | |||||
S02W07 | 133 | 350 | ||||||||||||||
2014-09-09T00:16 | N33E10 | 110 | 810 | N26E30 | 86 | 780 | 3.1 | 4.1 | −6.2 | 14.1 | −1.6 | |||||
2014-09-10T18:24 | N10W07 | 76 | 1350 | N15W02 | 90 | 1343 | N15W10 | 90 | 1400 | −8.4 | −6.4 | −1.4 | −5.4 | −3.7 | −5.4 | 4.8 |
2014-12-19T00:27 | S13E27 | 87 | 810 | S09E04 | 120 | 730 | S09E20 | 90 | 885 | 4.6 | 10.6 | −5.4 | 9.6 | −10.7 | −1.4 | −9.8 |
2015-03-15T02:00 | N04W13 | 53 | 1230 | S18W30 | 80 | 840 | S12W32 | 90 | 750 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 26.9 | 7.6 | 32.9 | 6.8 |
2015-04-04T23:36 | S07E16 | 41 | 1090 | −6.2 | −35.2 | −37.6 | ||||||||||
2015-05-02T21:36 | N04E10 | 76 | 450 | S13E10 | 64 | 530 | S45E10 | 112 | 286 | e | 37.2 | 3.2 | 27.2 | 41.2 | e | 19.8 |
2015-06-18T17:24 | N21E21 | 87 | 1370 | N15E39 | 100 | 900 | N10E50 | 90 | 1000 | −21.7 | −24.7 | 0.3 | 5.3 | −6.2 | 8.3 | −4.3 |
2015-06-19T06:42 | S33W13 | 133 | 730 | S25W15 | 110 | 400 | S33W09 | 108 | 603 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 21.2 | e | 1.2 | 25.2 | 4.3 |
2015-06-21T02:48 | N04E04 | 53 | 2290 | N08E07 | 86 | 1300 | N07E08 | 94 | 1250 | −17.0 | −17.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 |
2015-06-22T18:36 | N21W07 | 99 | 1170 | N12W09 | 80 | 1100 | N14W03 | 90 | 1155 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
2015-06-25T08:36 | N21W25 | 87 | 1550 | N12W40 | 120 | 1450 | N23W46 | 82 | 1450 | 8.5 | −5.5 | 1.5 | −2.5 | 22.5 | 11.5 | 13.5 |
2015-08-12T15:12 | S07W07 | 30 | 1510 | S20W35 | 90 | 600 | S22W36 | 82 | 567 | 32.3 | −16.7 | 16.3 | 37.3 | 25.4 | e | 20.7 |
2015-09-18T04:30 | S19W07 | 53 | 890 | S60W27 | 90 | 750 | S26W07 | 76 | 744 | 48.6 | 33.6 | 27.6 | e | 11.8 | 40.6 | 17.4 |
2015-11-04T14:24 | S07W19 | 76 | 770 | S01W11 | 74 | 608 | 36.4 | 26.4 | 19.4 | 40.4 | 13.0 | |||||
2015-12-28T12:39 | S18W13 | 109 | 890 | S06W08 | 82 | 800 | S15W14 | 116 | 850 | 8.0 | 7.0 | −8.0 | 13.0 | −5.6 | 10.0 | −5.2 |
2016-04-10T11:00 | N10E10 | 60 | 570 | N25E25 | 70 | 606 | S34E24 | 70 | 521 | e | 6.2 | −12.8 | e | −6.8 | e | −18.2 |
2016-11-05T04:48 | N16W13 | 76 | 670 | N17W19 | 56 | 706 | N23W26 | 70 | 487 | −11.5 | −11.5 | −29.5 | −11.5 | −13.5 | 16.5 | −12.6 |
MAE | 3000 | 16.1 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 15.1 | 11.0 |
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