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All issues Volume 8 (2018) J. Space Weather Space Clim., 8 (2018) A39 Full HTML

Table 2.

CME parameters and arrival time prediction.

CME date from CCMC CME board 3D parameters
 Heliospheric model
 By Met office
 Heliospheric model
 By SWRC
 Heliospheric model
 CCMC mean prediction error of arrival time (h)
Manned-detection + cone-fit (SEPC)
 From Met office
 From SWRC
 Prediction error of arrival time (h)
Direction (°) Angular width (°) Velocity (km s−1) Direction (°) Angular width (°) Velocity (km s−1) Direction (°) Angular width (°) Velocity (km s−1) SEPCa SEPCb Met officec SWRCd
2014-01-07T18:24 S25W25 87 1930 S30W40 136 2400 −20.5 −16.5 −18.9 −24.5 −13.0
2014-02-04T01:25 S07W13 53 1070 S34W29 124 660 −25.3 −30.3 −15.6 4.7 −10.2
2014-02-18T01:25 N09W07 86 710 S29E19 106 600 28.2 31.2 22.3 45.2 18.6
2014-02-19T16:00 S30E10 87 570 S37E01 90 800 −12.0 −27.0 −18.6 −9.0 −11.8
S07E10 76 1090
2014-02-25T01:25 S02E33 99 1710 1.8 −26.2 −20.1
2014-03-23T04:09 N04E04 41 1770 N04E35 104 700 −22.4 −30.4 –0.9 22.6 2.8
2014-04-18T13:09 S02W19 133 1210 S34W10 90 1400 5.6 1.6 −1.2 −0.4 5.5
2014-08-22T06:28 S07E04 64 790 N10W29 100 444 −36.0 −34.0 −25.0 4.0 −20.2
S02W07 133 350
2014-09-09T00:16 N33E10 110 810 N26E30 86 780 3.1 4.1 −6.2 14.1 −1.6
2014-09-10T18:24 N10W07 76 1350 N15W02 90 1343 N15W10 90 1400 −8.4 −6.4 −1.4 −5.4 −3.7 −5.4 4.8
2014-12-19T00:27 S13E27 87 810 S09E04 120 730 S09E20 90 885 4.6 10.6 −5.4 9.6 −10.7 −1.4 −9.8
2015-03-15T02:00 N04W13 53 1230 S18W30 80 840 S12W32 90 750 7.9 0.9 7.9 26.9 7.6 32.9 6.8
2015-04-04T23:36 S07E16 41 1090 −6.2 −35.2 −37.6
2015-05-02T21:36 N04E10 76 450 S13E10 64 530 S45E10 112 286 e 37.2 3.2 27.2 41.2 e 19.8
2015-06-18T17:24 N21E21 87 1370 N15E39 100 900 N10E50 90 1000 −21.7 −24.7 0.3 5.3 −6.2 8.3 −4.3
2015-06-19T06:42 S33W13 133 730 S25W15 110 400 S33W09 108 603 4.2 8.2 21.2 e 1.2 25.2 4.3
2015-06-21T02:48 N04E04 53 2290 N08E07 86 1300 N07E08 94 1250 −17.0 −17.0 3.0 1.0 3.7 5.0 1.8
2015-06-22T18:36 N21W07 99 1170 N12W09 80 1100 N14W03 90 1155 1.1 3.1 8.1 3.1 5.4 5.1 4.7
2015-06-25T08:36 N21W25 87 1550 N12W40 120 1450 N23W46 82 1450 8.5 −5.5 1.5 −2.5 22.5 11.5 13.5
2015-08-12T15:12 S07W07 30 1510 S20W35 90 600 S22W36 82 567 32.3 −16.7 16.3 37.3 25.4 e 20.7
2015-09-18T04:30 S19W07 53 890 S60W27 90 750 S26W07 76 744 48.6 33.6 27.6 e 11.8 40.6 17.4
2015-11-04T14:24 S07W19 76 770 S01W11 74 608 36.4 26.4 19.4 40.4 13.0
2015-12-28T12:39 S18W13 109 890 S06W08 82 800 S15W14 116 850 8.0 7.0 −8.0 13.0 −5.6 10.0 −5.2
2016-04-10T11:00 N10E10 60 570 N25E25 70 606 S34E24 70 521 e 6.2 −12.8 e −6.8 e −18.2
2016-11-05T04:48 N16W13 76 670 N17W19 56 706 N23W26 70 487 −11.5 −11.5 −29.5 −11.5 −13.5 16.5 −12.6
MAE 3000 16.1 18.0 11.0 15.3 12.5 15.1 11.0
a

The CME parameters taken as input are fitting results by cone-model of SEPC, using the source location as the CME propagation direction.

b

The CME parameters taken as input are fitting results by cone-model of SEPC.

c

The CME parameters taken as input are from Met office in CCMC CME scoreboard.

d

The CME parameters taken as input are from SWRC in CCMC CME scoreboard.

e

The CME is assumed to be not arrive or can’t be recognized as arrive at the Earth.

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