An operational solar wind prediction system transitioning fundamental science to operations | Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Developing New Space Weather Tools: Transitioning fundamental science to operational prediction systems

Open Access

Table 5.

A comparison of the HSEs to other literatures.

Literature	Test period	Model	Hit	Miss	False	HR^b	FAR^c
Our system	From 2007 to 2016	HAF	327	216	137	0.60	0.30
In MacNeice (2009)^a	From mid-2006 to mid-2008	WSA	23	30	11	0.43	0.32
In Norquist & Meeks (2010)	1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and 2007	HAF	82	164	205	0.33	0.71
In Norquist & Meeks (2010)	1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, and 2007	WSA	127	120	246	0.51	0.66
In Owen et al. (2010)	1995–2002	Baseline	138	95	26	0.59	0.16
		WSA-ENLIL	90	142	17	0.39	0.16
		CROHEL	121	114	27	0.51	0.18

For r _cs = 5r ₀ for GONG magnetogram sources in MacNeice (2009).

HR is calculated by Hit/(Hit + Miss).

FAR is calculated by False/(False + Hit).

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